View in Browser
Red Box

Tuesday, September 23

Good morning and welcome to your morning briefing, brought to you by Philip Webster on the day Ed Miliband stakes his election appeal on the health service.

In today's edition

  • Miliband tops left-wing power list as Russell Brand reaches top ten
  • Labour to fund NHS with mansion tax and levy on tobacco giants
  • MPs expect recall as US launches airstrikes in Syria
  • Public expect election dead-heat - poll

Essential political news and exclusive daily polling from YouGov direct to your inbox, with expert analysis from our leading columnists David Aaronovitch, Adam Boulton, Camilla Cavendish, Phil Collins, Danny Finkelstein, Tim Montgomerie, Matthew Parris, Hugo Rifkind, Jenni Russell, Rachel Sylvester and more.

Any tips or feedback tweet us @TimesRedBox

Top News
2014 power lists
Burnham, Umunna and Reeves snap at Miliband’s heels

Three likely future Labour leadership candidates, including Andy Burnham, have strengthened their position in a celebrity-rich list of the 100 most influential left-wingers published today.

Ed Miliband, who makes his keynote speech to the Labour conference this afternoon, tops the list drawn up by a panel of commentators and politicians overseen by Iain Dale, the LBC broadcaster and blogger.

The list published in full, on The Times Red Box website, was largely drawn up before the Scottish referendum and has been revised since. Alex Salmond would have been top had there been a “yes” vote.

This year’s list gets extra sparkle from the rise of several celebrity left-wingers. Russell Brand, the comedian, soars to tenth, thanks mainly to his spirited exchange with Jeremy Paxman on Newsnight, when he called for a political revolution.

JK Rowling, a vocal defender of the Union in the recent battle, Eddie Izzard and Joey Barton, the footballer, also feature.

Burnham, shadow health secretary, moves from ninth to fifth, recognition of his higher profile in recent months and his growing appeal to party activists.

Chuka Umunna, shadow business secretary, and Rachel Reeves, shadow work and pensions secretary, enter the top ten, the highest placed entries of the 2010 intake. Both are ambitious and highly rated by colleagues who see them as certain candidates in a future leadership contest.

In The Times, Dale writes that Burnham is increasingly defying his leader and issuing his own policy statements. “More worrying for Miliband is that Burnham is very popular with the grassroots of the party, regularly topping the polls on the LabourList blog. Will Miliband grow a backbone and move, or even sack, Burnham?”

Nicola Sturgeon has raced into the top ten after Salmond’s sudden decision to quit after the referendum.

Dale writes that it may not have gone Salmond’s way, but he set the terms of the debate. “The whole of Westminster from David Cameron to Nick Robinson were dancing to his tune.”

Gordon Brown and Tony Blair re-enter the list at 19 and 20. Ominously for Miliband, Len McCluskey, leader of the Unite union, is in second place, almost stressing the closeness between them that Tories allege. Brown’s star performance in the referendum is praised. Dale says he was the only rival who could “hold a candle” to Salmond.

Go to the Red Box site for the full list.

Comment
It’s NHS, NHS, NHS for Miliband
Rachel Sylvester

Just as Tony Blair promised that his priority would be "education, education, education" for Ed Miliband, one shadow cabinet member told me last night, it will be "NHS, NHS, NHS", an area in which Labour has a clear poll lead over the Tories.

Today this will be all about resources, with the plan to use the money from the mansion tax and an eye-catching new levy on the profits of cigarette companies. Modernising frontbenchers insist, though, that for Labour to really drive home its advantage it must also be about reform.

Labour party conference
Miliband to tax expensive homes and tobacco giants to fund NHS

The stakes could not be higher. Ed Miliband knows he cannot afford to fail today. His energy price freeze announcement last year gave him a big boost and a poll lead that he has maintained. But the public still refuses to see him as a future prime minister.

So it is understandable that he will play Labour’s strongest card, the NHS, today. The shadow cabinet was recently given internal polling showing the health service rising to join immigration as the two main voter concerns, above even the economy.

Miliband, setting out plans for two Labour terms, will pledge to fill the NHS funding gap with between £1bn and £2bn from a mansion tax on homes worth more than £2m. And there is strong speculation that he will raise a big slice of funding from a windfall tax on tobacco profits. There will be an outcry from the companies but Labour’s line - according to The Guardian - will be that they have a duty to help the NHS because of the link between cancer and tobacco.

The Labour leader may have another rabbit to pull from the hat as he sets out his six “national goals”, including doubling the number of first-time homebuyers.

The mansion tax was originally planned to fund the return of the 10p tax rate. But that will now be funded by abolishing the married couple’s allowance, leaving scope for use of the mansion tax.

It will be the first time Labour has earmarked a new tax for the NHS since Gordon Brown raised national insurance by 1 per cent in 2002.

Miliband’s goals today include ensuring that as many school-leavers go on to apprenticeships as to university, helping working families share in the national wealth, and halving the number of low-paid.

He badly needs to rouse his party. The conference so far this week has seemed flat, nothing like the 1996 pre-election gathering when shadow ministers were hailed one after the other as if they were presenting a programme for government. Which they were. In Manchester there has been more excitement on the fringe.

Poll
What kind of government do you think will emerge next year?
Coalition future
Voters predict election dead-heat - poll

Some people believe that the “wisdom of crowds” is a better predictor of an election outcome than a normal poll, writes YouGov chief Stephan Shakespeare. So in that spirit, using First Verdict (see here for methodology), we asked a balanced sample of 2,389 UK adults to predict the Conservative and Labour vote shares in the May 2015 election.

The aggregated prediction: Labour was ahead by less than half a percentage point. If that happens, Labour would probably be looking to the Lib Dems to form a coalition.

We also asked directly: what kind of government do you predict will emerge after the next election? The answer: Conservative majority 23%; Con-Lib coalition 13%; Lab-Lib coalition 23%; Labour majority 21%; some other form (whatever that might be) 20%.

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/
Iraq and Syria crisis
MPs expect recall as US launches airstrikes in Syria

Shadow ministers in Manchester were last night expecting the Commons to be recalled as early as Friday to approve UK airstrikes against Islamic State (Isis) terrorists.

That seems even more likely with the news that the Americans and several Arab states have struck Isis positions in Syria. Fighter jets, bombers and cruise missiles have been in action.

Downing Street was informed in advance but the decision to go into Syria, over which Britain has been cautious, will take many by surprise. It comes before President Obama and David Cameron address the UN general assembly tomorrow.

Cameron is expected to commit the RAF to strikes on Iraq, subject to Commons approval. He does not want a repeat of last year’s defeat over Syria.

Whether any Commons motion will differentiate between Iraq and Syria is not clear. Labour MPs have voiced doubts over strikes on Syrian territory, as has Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary.

The Times reports that Cameron will take the historic step of meeting Iran’s leader as he seeks to widen the anti-Isis coalition. He will speak with President Rouhani in New York, the first time since 1979 that a British leader has had face-to-face talks with an Iranian president.

Must Read
Is this the costliest divorce battle in history?
Robert Peston

Wooing the Scots with public spending has not won them over to the virtues of staying in the Union, Robert Peston argues - and now it is stoking resentment in the rest of the country. It remains unclear whether last week’s vote has won Scotland back for good, or just delayed an inevitable split.

What The Papers Said

The Telegraph

Would-be Tory rebel John Redwood writes in the Telegraph that David Cameron’s speech on Friday promising English home rule was “extremely popular with his backbenchers”. The paper leads with news that Tories plan to make English votes the centrepiece of the election campaign.


The Guardian

MPs including John Denham, Ben Bradshaw and Steve Reed met in Manchester yesterday to discuss plans for forming an English Labour party, The Guardian reports. Its leader praised Ed Balls’ speech for “austerity with a fairer flavour” than that offered by George Osborne.


The Daily Mail

Labour supporters are discontented at the growing number of “Red Princes” - the offspring of former Labour grandees such as Neil Kinnock and Jack Straw - planning to stand in the election, the Mail finds. It also notes that Ed Balls’ promise to “balance the books” does not include capital spending.


The Sun

In its leader,The Sun attacks Ed Balls’ speech as “a masterclass in deception”, calling on politicians of all parties to “stop the spin”. Ed Miliband’s six-point plan has “echoes of Marxism”, but it makes no mention of immigration or welfare reform, the paper finds.

Top News
Labour party conference
  • AM: Shadow environment secretary Maria Eagle gives speech
  • AM: Shadow energy secretary Caroline Flint speaks
  • AM: Shadow transport secretary Mary Creagh appears
  • PM: Leader of the opposition Ed Miliband delivers key note speech

Elsewhere
  • Edinburgh, 2pm: Alex Salmond makes a statement in Scottish parliament
  • London, 2.50pm: Gordon Brown and international development secretary Justine Greening attend UNICEF press conference on Syrian children
  • New York, 5.30pm: Foreign secretary Philip Hammond hosts ministerial meeting on Syria on sidelines of UNGA
The Times & The Sunday Times Membership
£1 for 30 Days
Join today and enjoy 30 days of award-winning journalism for just £1. With our Digital Pack you'll enjoy a tablet edition, smartphone app, access to both websites and an exclusive sports app.
Find out more
Unsubscribe from Red Box
This email was sent by: %%Member_Busname%%
%%Member_Addr%% %%Member_City%%, %%Member_State%%, %%Member_PostalCode%%, %%Member_Country%%