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Wednesday, March 4

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Good morning. Philip Webster reports on this morning's political news, as Ukip sets out its immigration policy...

Today:

  • Farage drops migrant cap
  • Tory voters move right and Labour left with age – exclusive poll
  • Clegg demands drugs law overhaul
  • Balls seeks more from non-doms
  • Transport: Eton pupils ‘at risk’
  • Greens 'threaten Labour'

Latest: Responding on Today to this morning's IFS report which finds that household incomes have returned to pre-crisis levels, the Chancellor heralded "a major milestone" in the recovery, but said that "the job isn't done". He described the sale of Eurostar as "really sensible".

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Top News
Rise of Ukip
Farage bans unskilled migrants but drops cap

Immigration is the policy on which Ukip scores best against the other main parties, according to recent polls. And today Nigel Farage sets out its platform for May.

This week The Times, in its series on immigration, has exposed the deep divisions at the top of the government over whether it should stick to its heavily missed target of reducing net migration to below 100,000.

So surprise, surprise Farage makes plain this morning that Ukip will not be adopting “arbitrary” immigration targets before the election, dropping a plan reconfirmed only recently for a 50,000 cap.

Senior Conservatives know that Farage would have been delighted if ministers had ditched the 100,000 objective, enabling him to claim that they had given up on controls. But he clearly is not intending to fall into the same trap even though dropping his cap will lay him open to charges of chaotic policy-making. Writing in The Telegraph, Farage says if Ukip holds the balance of power after the election he will not make the same mistake as Cameron.

He says: “While politicians and the people they represent determine the direction of travel for this country – we will not, unlike the other parties, seek to set arbitrary targets which only result in broken promises.”

Farage wants this issue in the headlines. So as The Times, The Guardian and other papers report, he will announce today that Ukip would ban unskilled immigrants from working in Britain for five years and set up a new migration control watchdog to bring down overall numbers.

In The Times Rachel Sylvester and Alice Thomson, continuing their reports on the issue, say that Farage will also propose a 2,500 increase in border force staff, extra enforcement workers, and an Australian-style points system allocating visas to people seen as most beneficial to the UK.

Asked on Today what level of immigration he was proposing, Farage said he wanted to bring it “back to normality”. For half a century it had been between 20,000 and 50,000 and it was a situation with which people were comfortable. “Since then we have gone mad. We opened up the doors to much of the world and ten former communist countries.” But he was not setting targets.

When the programme played a tape of his spokesman speaking of a cap at 50,000, Farage said it was “very unlikely” that the country would need 50, 000 people coming in. “I do not think we will get anywhere near 50,000.”

He added: “We are getting rid of caps.”

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Comment
Ukip can never be outbid on immigration
Daniel Finkelstein

There is no such thing as a bad bit of politics on immigration for Ukip. While it is being talked about, they are winning. Read the piece

Listen to the latest episode of the Comment Central podcast with Tim Montgomerie
Poll
As you have got older, do you think your views have moved left or right?
Exclusive YouGov polling
As they get older Tory voters move right and Labour voters left

It is assumed that people become more conservative as they age. But is it true, asks YouGov’s Stephan Shakespeare. In an exclusive YouGov poll for Red Box, we asked: “Looking back, do you think your own views have become more right-wing as you have got older, more left wing, or have your views stayed about the same?”

  • 22 per cent say they have become “more right-wing” with age
  • 15 per cent who say “more left-wing”

But the movement within the groupings shows interesting variation: Conservatives say they are moving right while Labour supporters tend to describe their own move as further left. Lib Dems are also moving further left, and Ukippers further right. Among the age groupings, only the younger voters say that they are moving left.

YouGov
2015 Election Countdown
64 days to go
Lib Dem destiny
Clegg demands overhaul of drugs laws

Nick Clegg will make the news today with an appearance in London alongside Sir Richard Branson calling for an overhaul of the drug laws. But he was given some unwelcome news himself with the latest YouGov poll for The Sun putting the Lib Dems on a tiny 5 per cent.

The papers have different takes on his stance today. The Independent picks up on his proposal that young adults should not be prevented from applying for jobs because of a “stupid youthful mistake” with drugs.

It says he will argue that drug possession should primarily be treated as a health issue rather than a criminal offence, with users offered treatment or education or given a civil fine.

The Mail says he will press ahead with plans to decriminalise possession of all drugs despite charities warning that the move will wreck thousands of lives.

The Lib Dem leader is to pledge that his party will bring forward plans to ensure those caught with drugs for “personal use” will no longer face criminal prosecution. Instead, the maximum penalty would be a fine, the paper says.

The Sun reports that Clegg will say people caught with drugs should not have a criminal record.

But it is also The Sun which reports that Clegg’s party has hit a 25-year polling low, adding that it faces losing its deposit in hundreds of seats.

The Tories topped the poll on 36 per cent, giving them a two-point lead over Labour.

Exclusive YouGov polling for Red Box
Peter Brookes
Transport policy
Eton pupils ‘at risk’ from motorway extension

Transport policy week: The future David Camerons, Boris Johnsons and Ed Llewellyns of this world might be put at risk from rising pollution, campaigners claim. The Times reports this morning that a new study suggests that the emission of more fumes caused by the planned extension of the M4 could lead pupils at nearby schools to suffer with slower cognitive development. The grounds of Eton, the boarding school where 19 prime ministers, 20 current MPs and a handful of Cameron’s inner circle attended, are around 100 metres away from one stretch of the motorway.

Meanwhile, Callum Jones has been looking at public opinion on airport expansion and the HS2 rail link. Perhaps tellingly, pollsters believe that those who like the latter enjoy the TV shows Great British Railway Journeys and Rip Off Britain. Modern Railways magazine is also a popular read.

On airports, questions worded ever so slightly differently produce considerably contrasting results. While YouGov found in September that Heathrow was the favoured option when Britons were asked about extra capacity, a January survey of Londoners found that Gatwick was preferred if more capacity didn’t mean geographical expansion.

Read the piece

The battlegrounds: Explore Red Box's interactive guide to the seats where Election 2015 will be won or lost
Labour election campaign
Balls seeks more from non-doms

Labour is considering a fresh raid on wealthy “non-doms” to force them to pay more tax, The Times reports.

Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, said that he would be examining another crackdown on the tens of thousands of rich people who use their non-domiciled tax status to avoid paying British taxes on foreign income.

Balls told The Times that he was “absolutely looking” at a further clampdown should Labour win the election. He said that any chancellor should examine whether a tax arrangement put in place 200 years ago was still right for the modern age.

Michael Savage writes that the move would open up a new front in the party’s attempts to harvest more from the wealthy. It has already vowed to put the top rate of income tax back up to 50p and introduce an annual “mansion tax” on homes worth more than £2 million.

The Number
£757m
Britain is set to make almost twice as much as expected from the sale of its Eurostar stakes, which have been bought by a consortium of Canadian and British investment firms, and Eurostar itself.
Top News

Wednesday comment


1. Don’t blame immigrants. Try emulating them
- Alice Thomson, The Times

2. For the Tories, policy by nostalgia ain’t what it used to be
- Rafael Behr, The Guardian

3. Voters are crying out for a leader who thinks big
- Mary Riddell, The Daily Telegraph

4. Our glorious, fragile parliament - and its hungry, scurrying mice
- Michael Fabricant MP, The Daily Telegraph

5. £3bn to repair Parliament? Knock it into flats and send MPs up North
- Matthew Norman, The Independent
2015 general election
Greens ‘pose threat to Labour’

It is Ukip’s day but Labour gets a warning that another smaller party, the Greens, could deprive it of scores of seats.

Peter Hain, the former cabinet minister and green campaigner, issues a “health warning” to Labour supporters attracted by the Greens that they could be responsible for electing a right-wing, Conservative-led government.

In an interview with The Independent, Mr Hain said: “There is a danger of Labour supporters tempted by the Greens doing exactly what Labour supporters did at the last election. By voting Liberal Democrat, they put a Tory prime minister back into No 10.”

This morning's briefing was produced by Callum Jones.

Briefs

Defence cuts will deal a fatal blow to military, experts warn

A failure to spend at least 2 per cent of national income on defence will short-change the military by up to £6 billion a year, according to a new analysis. Read more


Cameron ally says sorry for benefits ‘slip’

David Cameron slapped down a Conservative minister who criticised the “inhuman inflexibility” of the government’s benefit sanctions system. Read more


Labour apologise for using forged letter against Tory rival

The Labour party was forced to apologise after it sent out a leaflet featuring a forged letter from a Tory rival in a campaign for a council by-election in North London. Read more

Agenda
Commons
  • Oral questions – Wales
  • PMQs
  • Opposition day debate

Lords
  • Oral questions – defence budget cuts, scrutiny of legislation

Elsewhere
  • 1.15pm: Norman Lamb takes part in LBC phone-in
  • Tony Blinken, America's deputy secretary of state, visits UK
  • 7pm: Jeremy Hunt takes part in LBC phone-in
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