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Good morning and welcome to your political briefing from me, Philip Webster. This is our last weekday bulletin before Christmas – and we have quite a bit to get through.
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In today's edition
- May allies blocked by Tories
- Secret teen terror trade exposed by Times
- Will Tory voters help Ukip?
- Salmond hints at aiding Labour
- The last 100 days of government
- Public don't know top Lib Dems - poll
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Any tips or feedback tweet us @TimesRedBox.
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Tory Turmoil
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Fear and loathing between Cameron and May camps
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The political year is ending with yet further strains between Downing Street and Theresa May, one of the favourites ultimately to succeed David Cameron.
Now Number 10 and the Tory machine are being accused of blocking two of May’s aides from becoming MPs.
The Times and other papers report that Nick Timothy and Stephen Parkinson were suspended from the Conservatives’ candidate list because they refused to campaign in Rochester & Strood.
But their friends say they would have been breaking the rules had they done so. Former special advisers have told me that they would have considered it out of order to have done so.
Francis Elliott writes in The Times that friends say the two were purged as part of the long-running feud between the rival operations. The suspension came to light when Timothy appeared to be on the brink of making the shortlist for the safe Tory seat of Aldridge Brownhills.
Timothy was quoted in a recent profile of the home secretary that also included quotes from a friend saying that she didn’t “rate Cameron any more” and had “given up on him”.
Downing Street said that the suspensions had been ordered by Grant Shapps, the Tory chairman.
Whitehall rules strictly limit the activities that can be carried out by ministers’ special advisers, who are paid for by taxpayers.
Elliott says Sir Jeremy Heywood, the head of the civil service, was dragged into the row after the Tories suggested the Cabinet Office had authorised an interpretation of the rules on special advisers’ conduct to allow them to campaign in their spare time.
The Guardian says that in a sign of the bad blood between the camps Timothy released a letter claiming he had been asked to break the code of conduct.
The Independent reports that Cameron is understood to have agreed that the two aides should be struck off the approved list of candidates for the next election.
And the Mail suggests that Downing Street and the Home Office were said to be at war over a “malicious'” and “petty” attempt to stop two of May's closest allies becoming MPs in what it called an increasingly toxic feud.
The Conservative high command will be relieved that the Commons is now in recess and will hope that the row dies over Christmas. But it is a further warning of the tensions that could erupt next year.
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138
days to go
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Rise of Ukip
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Will Tories help Ukip beat Labour candidates?
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Will Conservative voters switch to Ukip in seats where the insurgent party is the only threat to Labour? Matthew Goodwin, of Nottingham University, raises that possibility in his latest piece for Red Box.
He draws on the latest polling by Lord Ashcroft in four labour seats which are believed to be top Ukip targets. When people were asked to think specifically about their own constituency, Labour had the lead – but only a slim one.
Goodwin has calculated that even if only one in four Conservatives switch to Ukip and all else stays roughly equal, three of these seats would fall to Ukip.
But there is sobering news for Ukip in another poll today. The Telegraph says that in the Ipsos MORI survey Nigel Farage's approval ratings were found to have plunged in recent weeks.
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Ukip’s real threat to Labour in 2015
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Matthew Goodwin
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One of the key questions that will be answered at the 2015 general election is whether Nigel Farage and Ukip can really hurt the Labour Party. While much of the attention will naturally focus on Ukip’s impact in key Conservative-held marginal seats, there are two ways that Ukip could hurt Labour.
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Lib Dems hope incumbency will keep them in game
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Sean Kemp
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Seven years and a day since he became Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg finds himself still waiting for the recovery in the polls he was hoping to see long ago.
The party has accepted it will stay marooned in single figures, and is now set for a series of hyper-local election battles combined with a national defence of its government record.
The hope is that incumbency will save enough MPs to keep the Lib Dems in the game. It may be that the party saved itself when it ripped up boundary changes (which would have hurt that advantage) in revenge for the death of Lords reform. Jesse Norman, the Conservative MP who led the charge to stop an elected Lords, should be top of Lib Dem Christmas lists.
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SW1
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We want your views
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As I mentioned at the top, this morning’s briefing is my last of 2014. Tim Shipman will be sending out his final email of the year on Sunday. For those who still want to keep up to date with the latest events and look ahead to the election, we’ll continue to update the Red Box website over the Christmas period.
It’s been an exciting first few months for the Red Box team – and now we want to know what you think. For the next few weeks, we’re collecting the opinions of our readers through a short survey. It takes just thirty seconds to fill out and is completely anonymous, so please do let us know your thoughts if you have time.
Have a lovely Christmas. We’ll be back with a special New Year’s Day edition, before normal service resumes on January 4.
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UK security
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Secret teen terror trade exposed by Times
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Ministers and the security agencies will be studying today’s disturbing disclosures in The Times that extremists in Britain with links to Islamic State jihadists are offering cash payments to teenagers so they can travel to join terrorists in Syria.
Our three-month undercover investigation has exposed the ease with which young British Muslims are being groomed, radicalised and helped to make the journey to join the foreign conflict.
It has found the first evidence that a cell in the UK linked to Isis is offering cash incentives to girls to marry fighters in Syria.
Ministers have voiced concerns about the use of social media to recruit foreign fighters and spread propaganda. David Cameron has called on technology companies to do more to tackle terrorist activity online.
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£8.4 million
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The total salary bill in 2013/14 for ministerial special advisers
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Referendum fallout
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Salmond hints at helping Labour
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After all the talk of Farage’s fox gracing the Westminster henhouse, Alex Salmond may well lead a herd of elephants through the Commons in May (Callum Jones writes).
The former Scottish first minister and SNP leader – now parliamentary candidate for Gordon – is adapting well to life after Bute House, and has given an interview to today’s Independent. Salmond hints that his party’s MPs may well vote on matters which don’t affect Scotland after the election, assisting a Labour minority government.
“There will be many things that come across the Westminster desk that would be of little moment to Scottish people, but will be of great moment to the government of the day,” he tells the Indy.
The suggestion will no doubt anger – and concern – senior Conservatives.
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Peter Brookes
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2015 general election
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The last 100 days - advice from McBride
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Damian McBride, the former Treasury official and Gordon Brown adviser, has advice for government and opposition today on what they should be doing with their last 100 days before general election “purdah” prevents them from doing very little but campaign.
In an article on the Red Box website McBride suggests that apart from the budget on March 18 there appears to be inertia in Westminster over announcements and initiatives to come. If David Cameron were to lose he would be the youngest ex-prime minister and ex-Tory leader since the Earl of Rosebery 120 years ago. He and his colleagues need to ask themselves every morning what they can do with the power they have while they have the chance.
The ex-spin doctor who knows a thing about leaks suggests that Labour must try to establish whether “secret plans” exist to implement George Osborne’s post-election spending cuts. That would provide campaign dynamite.
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Work for Nick Clegg in the office of the Deputy Prime Minister, and you may find yourself working for Nigel Farage in a few months time. Or Harriet Harman. Or Alex Salmond. Or Vince Cable. Or Boris Johnson. Those are five pretty different introductory conversations to prepare.
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- Damian McBride
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Which leading Liberal Democrats would make a good leader? (net rating showing Cable as frontrunner)
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Lib Dem destiny
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Public unfamiliar with leading Lib Dems
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Completing our series previewing possible post-election leadership contests, YouGov asked the public about Liberal Democrat candidates exclusively for Red Box (Stephan Shakespeare writes).
Should Nick Clegg step down, there is only a single candidate who is reasonably known to the public: Vince Cable. The rest have much to do if they are going to make any kind of impression – even most Lib Dem supporters claim unfamiliarity with Tim, Lynne, Ed or David. As before, the numbers represent (respectively) “would be a good leader”, “would not be a good leader”, “not sure”, “don't know enough about this person to say”:
- Vince Cable, 24-27-21-28
- Danny Alexander, 12-23-19-45
- David Laws, 5-15-15-66
- Tim Farron, 4-11-13-71
- Ed Davey, 4-14-15-68
- Lynne Featherstone, 2-12-13-73
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YouGov
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Friday comment
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1. Welfare in Britain isn’t fair, as Ukip knows
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- Philip Collins, The Times
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2. The politicians seeking power in the 2015 election have never been so powerless
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- Steve Richards, The Guardian
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3. A 'cyber war’ sounds fantastical, but it’s real – and we’re losing
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- Fraser Nelson, The Daily Telegraph
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4. Surprise, surprise
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- Nigel Farage, The Independent
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5. Welcome, Rory Bremner. Farewell, Mehdi Hasan.
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- Iain Dale, Conservative Home
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The Times
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Deborah Haynes reveals that the government will announce later that women will be called up to fight on the front line as early as 2016. In a leader, The Times echoes the views of many other papers this morning on the European Court of Justice's ruling yesterday that employers should recognise obesity as a disability. Obese people “do not deserve the absurdity of being considered disabled,” the paper says.
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Daily Mail
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The Mail carries not one, but two critical leaders on Brussels this morning, accusing it of “riding roughshod over the wishes of Britain’s democractically elected parliament”. It also slams Nick Clegg as “the Madame Fifi of British politics”, after yesterday’s figures showed he had 20 special advisors.
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Daily Mirror
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The Mirror uses its front page to hit out at the chancellor, who it notes has given chief of staff Rupert Harrison a 19 per cent pay rise while NHS staff have received a 1 per cent salary boost.
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The Sun
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Francois Hollande – “France’s pipsqueak president” and “a socialist loser” – comes under fire in today’s Sun leader, alongside the ECJ ruling that obesity is a disability. “A referendum in 2017 is the only way out” if the French veto Britain’s suggest EU reforms, the paper says. “Only one main party offers it.”
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UK
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- 9am: Nigel Farage takes part in monthly phone-in on LBC
- Middlesex, 8pm: Tessa Jowell, Norman Lamb and John Redwood take part in Any Questions
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Around the world
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- Brussels: Two-day meeting of EU leaders concludes
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This is your last weekday Red Box briefing of 2014. Tim Shipman will be here on Sunday, and we'll be back on January 1 with a special edition before normal service resumes on January 4. Merry Christmas and thanks for reading.
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