Problems viewing this? Click to view in your browser
Red Box

Wednesday, March 25

Brought to you with

Morning,

Philip Webster reports on today's political news.

This morning:

Tweet us @TimesRedBox, visit our Facebook page or reply to this email to let us know your views or feedback.

Top News
2015 general election
NHS and PM’s future to dominate last question time clash

David Cameron and Ed Miliband square up for the last time in this parliament and we can expect it to be a noisy and hugely partisan occasion – as usual.

But the PM’s surprise decision to announce his long-term retirement plans and the spectacle of him being heckled by pensioners – both seen by MPs as departures from the Conservatives’ so far well-disciplined campaign – means Miliband is rather spoilt for choice. George Osborne’s refusal to rule out a VAT rise could also feature.

Sam Coates reports in The Times that the PM’s uncomfortable appearance at the Age UK conference came amid concern inside his party that his strategists are determined to keep the NHS out of the Tory campaign because it is seen as Labour’s issue. Jeremy Hunt, the health secretary, is rarely seen on TV and has been left deeply frustrated, Coates reveals. Tory MPs are openly challenging the tactic and are desperate for the party to do more to take on Labour.

The Mail says Cameron was mocked by an audience of elderly voters he was hoping to convince to vote for the Conservatives. It says pensioners shouted “rubbish”, “lies”, and “answer the question” – and one waved his walking stick at him – as he was challenged about spending on social care.

The inquest continues into Cameron’s decision to rule out a third term. Some of his close supporters have told me they believe it will help him see off any early challenge if he fails to win an outright majority and will help to ease any coalition negotiations. Our poll below and another for The Sun also suggests the public do not see it as a gaffe.

But that does not appear to be the view in the Commons. The Times and the Mail report that MPs saw Cameron’s decision to list three potential successors, including George Osborne, as an attempt to anoint the chancellor.

The Times reports that influential Tory backbenchers believed Cameron would “lose the right” to decide his own departure if the party didn’t win the election. “If he wins an overall majority he can decide the time and the manner of his departure — and possibly his successor. If he doesn’t, he doesn’t,” said one.

  • The Mail says Cameron was forced to defend his decision to announce a sell-by date on his premiership, as senior Tories accused him of trying to anoint Osborne. Downing Street was struggling to contain the fallout, it says.

  • The Indy reports Tory MPs as believing he has increased the chances of facing a post-election attempt to oust him.

  • The FT says Cameron’s admission that he would not seek a third term was variously described by Tory MPs as “sloppy” and “a serious blunder”, as the Conservative party’s well-drilled election campaign hit a serious snag.

All of which means a lot of heat, but not too much light, later on as the leaders try to send their troops away happy.

Comment
Do we need something better to vote for?
Hugo Rifkind

There are two types of apathy about politics.

One is the more obvious. It’s listless, lazy and removed, and basically can’t be arsed because Meet The Kardashians is on E! – the other sort is more interesting and more dangerous.

Read the piece

2015 general election
Salmond threatens to lock out Tory minority government

Alex Salmond continues to behave as if he is still SNP leader and as if he won, rather than lost, the independence referendum.

Most of the papers report his latest, seemingly power-crazed, threat to block any attempt by the Conservatives to form a minority government.

Salmond told the New Statesman that bringing down the Tories by blocking their legislative programme would allow a Labour-led government to be installed in their place.

The Guardian says Salmond has been accused of making a “deeply sinister” threat to try to force out the Conservatives and install a Labour government using a process that could involve no negotiations and no deal with Ed Miliband.

Salmond sketches out a scenario that could occur if Cameron remained PM in a hung parliament. He foresees the Tories losing a vote on the Queen’s speech if Labour and the SNP combined, triggering a no-confidence vote which the PM would also lose.

Salmond says that under the terms of the fixed-term parliament legislation there would then be a 14-day grace period, at the end of which a potential prime minister would have to win a confidence motion. With SNP help, Miliband might win that vote.

His words seemed designed to provoke outrage and duly did, with the Tories claiming they would sabotage democracy.

  • The Telegraph says he was sipping pink champagne as he said that the “stars might be in alignment” for him to hold the balance of power.

  • The Sun reports that champagne-quaffing Salmond has challenged Ed Miliband to join forces with him to bring down a fledgling Tory government.

Salmond is handing the Tories ammunition with every intervention he makes. He is portraying the SNP as more anti-Tory than Labour but he is also helping the Conservative caricature of Miliband being in his pocket. What we don’t know is whether his tactics are backed by Nicola Sturgeon.

2015 Election Countdown
43 days to go
Exclusive YouGov polling
Women hold the key to Downing Street – Times poll

Women could hold the key to the election outcome because they are twice as likely to be undecided about how to vote in May.

That is one of the findings in a substantial YouGov poll for The Times. A survey of 8,271 voters found 17 per cent of women were still making up their minds compared with only 8 per cent of men. Among those female voters who have made a choice, the race is neck and neck on 35 per cent.

When forced to choose between Ed Miliband and David Cameron as prime minister, Cameron enjoys a much smaller lead among women than men.

The poll also suggests a big generational gulf. Voters under 25 are Labour inclined, with 34 per cent backing the party against 26 per cent who say they will support the Tories.

The reverse is true for older voters — the Conservatives are on 42 per cent in the over-60 bracket, with 28 per cent saying they will vote for Labour.

It also finds:

  • The campaign has made little difference to party negatives. When asked 18 months ago, 74 per cent said Labour had to change its policies — now this figure is only marginally lower at 69 per cent. For the Conservatives, 67 per cent thought the Tories cared more about the rich 18 months ago, and the same number think so today.

  • Ed Miliband is seen as out of his depth, weak and weird — then and now. David Cameron is seen as out of touch, smug and arrogant — then and now.

  • Seven out of ten Scots (69 per cent) believe that “Labour has seriously lost touch with ordinary working people” — a higher proportion than in the country as a whole. Some 29 per cent say they would be “delighted” with the SNP supporting a minority Labour government. Two thirds of Scots would be dismayed at the idea of a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition and 52 per cent would not like a Labour-Lib Dem coalition.

Peter Brookes
Exclusive YouGov polling
Cameron’s third term rejection not a gaffe, say voters

Was it a gaffe for David Cameron to spurn the idea of a third term as prime minister, asks YouGov’s Stephan Shakespeare? We used First Verdict to run the gaffe-o-meter, in which we asked a balanced sample to rate the possible PR error on a scale from 0 (“not a gaffe at all”) to 10 (“the biggest possible gaffe”).

This is the fourth potential gaffe we’ve tested, and it has scored just 3.8 – placing it bottom of the table. We should probably declare anything under 4 “not a gaffe”. One interpretation of this non-gaffe score is that the public regard this as a perfectly sensible comment; another explanation is that they think it was a deliberate tactical move. The second would be my own assessment, achieving the twin aims of making it more likely that he will not be undermined before delivering a “yes” result in the EU referendum, and putting George Osborne more firmly in the frame to succeed him in 2018.

However, it may not have been a sound strategic move: Cameron’s chief appeal is the comforting continuity he represents and he has now created a new sense of risk.

The gaffe-o-meter:

  • Labour’s Pink Bus, (February 12) –– 5.0
  • Nigel Farage’s Immigration cap (March 5) –– 5.0
  • Tristram Hunt’s Nuns (February 8) –– 4.5
  • David Cameron’s No Third Term (March 24) –– 3.8
Top News

Wednesday comment


1. Tell every PM: ten years and that’s your lot
- Daniel Finkelstein, The Times

2. Cameron has lost the only thing he had going for him
- Matthew Norman, The Independent

3. Even if David Cameron wins in May this exit talk will haunt him
- Rafael Behr, The Guardian

4. Ed Miliband should prepare for minority government
- Mary Riddell, The Daily Telegraph

5. On Sweets Way the great ignored are finding ways to assert themselves
- Owen Jones, The Guardian
Follow the comings and goings of SW1 throughout the week on the Red Box website
SW1
Times columnists tell of their childhood political experiences

The future of Britain’s political system was up for debate last night at the latest Red Box election event (Katie Gibbons writes). Yet for the panelists involved, it was childhood experiences of politics that formed their arguments.

Caitlin Moran, the Times columnist, author and feminist, revealed that she was introduced to politics as a young child by her union leader father who instructed: “You can do what you want in your life - but we vote Labour.”

For Hugo Rifkind, the son of Sir Malcolm Rifkind, the former cabinet minister, being made to canvas for his father as a teenager “in Converse and a leather jacket” had the opposite effect. “I probably would have been more political if I hadn’t had that growing up,” he said.

Born in Zimbabwe, Matthew Parris, a Times columnist and former Tory MP, was forced to form his political opinions as a child when, aged 12, he experienced the racist treatment of a friend.

Turing to the question in hand - “do we need something better to vote for?” - the three writers had wildly different thoughts. Though thanks to David Aaronovitch’s skilful chairing, the discussion remained as cordial as “most editorial meetings at The Times”.

Read the full piece here

Briefs

Abandon HS2 for a smaller, slower version, peers urge

The £50 billion HS2 rail project should be abandoned in its current form because the evidence used to justify the 250mph line is “out of date and unconvincing”, according to a cross-party review by the House of Lords economic affairs committee. Read more


Ukip politicians channel Brussels cash to partners

Two Ukip MEPs are channelling thousands of pounds a year to their partners using European allowances in a potential breach of EU rules, Laura Pitel reports. Read more

2015 general election
Exclusive: Parties hail their policies on disability

The debate over disability policy has been one of the most contentious of this parliament – and Labour and the Conservatives are fleshing out their arguments today. Mark Harper, the minister of state for disabled people, and Kate Green, the shadow minister of state for disabled people, have both written for Red Box.

Britain now has record employment rates for people with disabilities - something that Harper has attributed to welfare reforms implemented by the Conservatives. The minister writes that the success is “not just about funding these initiatives, it’s about changing attitudes”, highlighting the commitment from 60 big employers in the government’s disability employment scheme.

However, Green says the Tories are promoting a distorted version of Britain’s welfare system, with mention of the incapacity benefits deficit “buried in the details of the OBR report”. “Statistics out last week from the Work Programme show that it is helping just one in ten people on incapacity benefits into a sustained job,” she writes.

You can read the pieces, and Katie Gibbons’s write up here.

What The Papers Said

Financial Times

In its leader, the FT suggests that the PM’s comments about only serving for two terms in office may “galvanise speculation about a future leadership contents at the very moment his party should be presenting a coherent policy prospectus”. Matthew Engel’s sketch – entitled “Lessons from history: first rule of preparing exit is to keep shtum” – is here.


The Independent

Andrew Grice, the paper’s political editor, writes that Cameron’s remarks about his future were a cock-up. “What he was really saying on Monday was that he has no intention of leaving after winning the referendum,” he writes. “But he had not thought through the consequences of saying it.”


The Daily Telegraph

In a piece looking ahead to a 2020 Tory leadership contest, James Kirkup, the paper’s executive editor, suggests it may be too late for Osborne, May or Johnson to take the helm. He lists Patel, Poulter, Morgan, Crabb, McVey and Javid as potential contenders.


Daily Mail

A new poll by ComRes for the paper puts both Labour and the Tories on 35 per cent.

This morning's briefing was produced by Callum Jones.

The Times & The Sunday Times Membership
£1 for 30 Days
Join today and enjoy 30 days of award-winning journalism for just £1. With our digital pack you’ll enjoy a tablet edition, smartphone app, access to the website including our new Red Box website and exclusive sports app.
Find out more
Brought to you with
Unsubscribe from Red Box | Update Profile
This email was sent by: %%Member_Busname%%
%%Member_Addr%% %%Member_City%%, %%Member_State%%, %%Member_PostalCode%%, %%Member_Country%%