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Good morning,
Welcome to your daily political briefing from me, Philip Webster.
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In today's edition
- Coalition at war over spending cuts
- Lib Dems 'ruthless' over saving seats
- May favourite with Tories
- Labour's future debated
- BBC balanced, say 41 per cent
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Any tips or feedback tweet us @TimesRedBox.
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Coalition future
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Coalition war: minister accuses Tories of ‘pre-election panic’
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Like a divorcing couple, the coalition partners are still in the same house – just – but the exchanges between the two are getting ever more unpleasant.
Whether they will get the decree absolute before May 7 is increasingly irrelevant. They now seem equally keen to show the country how much they dislike each other. I’m told that, for some ministers, Vince Cable’s sharp intervention in cabinet last week attacking long-term spending plans was the signal for both sides to let proper hostilities begin.
Although Nick Clegg’s aim has always been to show that his party has the discipline to see through a full-term coalition, he and the Conservatives hope that by the time we get to the election the public will see them as two very distinct parties.
So the differentiation game has moved into a fresh gear over the weekend.
David Cameron accused his partners of being “all over the place” on the economy and a threat to prosperity. And this morning the Lib Dems have accused him of “pre-election panic.”
In the clearest signal that this was now the “line to take”, the PM bracketed the Lib Dems with Labour in an email to all Tory MPs and said the choice was now between “competence and chaos.”
But this morning Danny Alexander, who as Treasury chief secretary was integrally involved in drawing up the autumn statement, has hit out at the Conservatives, saying in an article in the Telegraph that they want to inflict unnecessary pain on Britain because of their ideological commitment to a smaller state.
Alexander wrote: “A mix of unfunded tax promises, harsh spending plans, and pandering to Ukip may be born of pre-election panic, but it is not economically credible.” Some Lib Dems will think that if Danny can be so rude to his partners, it is now open season.
While the parties agree on eliminating the deficit by 2017-18 they disagree on how to get there and what should happen thereafter.
With the election five months away, the distancing will go on. The Lib Dems seem certain to take any opportunity that arises to try to inflict a serious blow on the Tories in a Commons vote. Ministers I spoke to yesterday will not be surprised if there is a high-profile resignation early in the new year.
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Coalition remains Tories’ best hope
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Sean Kemp
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George Osborne was guilty of two untruths last week. One was accusing the Lib Dems of ‘slagging off’ the Autumn Statement; Nick Clegg’s party support the statement, its Conservative plans for massive cuts and no tax rises they disagree with. That shouldn’t surprise the Chancellor, because the other untruth is for him to imply he believes it himself.
The Tories’ best chance of power is another coalition. So Osborne can happily set unbelievable targets knowing he’ll be able to blame others when they are watered down.
Meanwhile the Lib Dems try to find a way to get credit for economic recovery but differentiate themselves from Tory economic policy. Both parties think they can gain from this disagreement, and it helpfully sidelines Labour. This one will run and run.
Sean Kemp is a former adviser to Nick Clegg
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Lib Dem destiny
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Party ruthless over saving seats
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With the polls stubbornly refusing to lift them out of the single figure doldrums, the Lib Dem leadership is desperate to hold on to as many of its 57 seats as possible.
Some ministers fear that their overall tally could easily be cut in half as voters punish them for their role in the coalition. There is talk is the Commons of some ministers spending two or three days a week in their constituencies campaigning rather than staying in Whitehall.
Many MPs will benefit from the incumbency factor and do better than the polls suggest because of their hard work in tending their seats over the years.
But I am told that the campaign team is being “spectacularly ruthless” in deciding which seats to concentrate their financial and manpower resources upon.
And in his Observer column yesterday Andrew Rawnsley said that Paddy Ashdown, who will chair the campaign, and Ryan Coetzee, the chief strategist, were presiding over “a pretty merciless process of triage to identify which of their seats might be saveable and which aren’t winnable.”
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148
days to go
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Referendum fallout
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Salmond ‘ready to rumble’ at Westminster
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Now we see why Alex Salmond so swiftly handed over the SNP crown to Nicola Sturgeon.
He is clearly relishing the prospect of playing a role in the formation of the next Westminster government.
He has announced he will be standing as the SNP candidate at Gordon in Aberdeenshire next May. And like Sturgeon before him he has hinted that his party could play a role in propping up a minority Labour government.
Labour’s argument is that a vote for the SNP will deprive it of a Westminster majority and allow the Tories back in. Salmond’s is that it is safe to vote SNP because he will not help the Tories.
The Times reports Salmond as saying that a “strong group of SNP MPs will have the capacity to rumble up Westminster”.
The Guardian says: “Salmond has said he expects to play a leading role in brokering a deal to prop up a minority Labour government after he confirmed he would stand for a seat at Westminster again at the 2015 general election.”
In the Independent Andy McSmith says Salmond’s move is not brilliant news for Ed Miliband. “Though it adds to his chances of being the next Prime Minister, the price would be high. Salmond is a very experienced, hard-nosed operator who will not sell his support cheaply, but the Labour leader is not going to want to be the Prime Minister who presides over the dismantling of the United Kingdom, any more than David Cameron did.”
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May’s lead widens, but can she beat Boris?
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Tim Montgomerie
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With increasing speculation about Ukip’s potential vote next May comes growing speculation about the future of the Tory leadership. Although there’s zero chance of David Cameron being replaced this side of polling day, he will have to go if he doesn’t beat Ed Miliband. In those circumstances George Osborne’s leadership hopes will be over too. Tory MPs are determined that the man who is effectively co-leader of their party today will take full responsibility for his part in presiding over the emergence of Ukip – still predominantly a split on the right side of British politics.
A new poll for ConservativeHome.com finds that Theresa May is consolidating her status as the activists’ favourite to succeed Mr Cameron. The home secretary is the choice of 28 per cent of Tory members – an 11 per cent lead over Boris Johnson. My hunch is that the Mayor of London would nonetheless beat Mrs May in any contest. Losing to Ed Miliband would so shock the Conservative party that it would turn to the one proven election winner that it has – however much of a gamble he represents.
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SW1
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Red Box debate: Labour’s election prospects
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Leading commentators on The Times will tonight debate whether Labour can win next year's general election, and if so how.
In our last Red Box debate organised by Times + we looked at the future of the Conservatives. Tonight at News UK HQ Jenni Russell, Phil Collins, and John McTernan, who was an adviser to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, will examine the opposition's prospects.
Tim Montgomerie will keep order. I have it on reasonable authority that one of tonight's participants thinks Labour cannot win and another thinks it will. So a sharp discussion can be guaranteed. No doubt they will touch on the succession, whenever it is, and possibly the report in The Independent that Tony Blair backs Chuka Umunna to take over one day.
The speakers' opening statements will go up on the Red Box website tonight and video highlights will appear tomorrow.
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SW1
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MP’s Candy Crush committee session
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Conservative MP Nigel Mills has made the front page of The Sun this morning.
The member of the work and pensions committee was snapped playing Candy Crush on a “taxpayer-funded” iPad during a lengthy session last week.
According to the report, Mills rarely put down the game during the two-and-a-half-hour hearing. With a majority of just 536 in the constituency of Amber Valley, he has said he “shall try not to do it in future”.
“David Cameron has detailed how much he loves Angry Birds and Fruit Ninja,” the paper notes in a leader. “Want answers on your pension? Hold on — Nigel wants to show the PM he can get to the next level.”
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Is the BBC biased?
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Exclusive YouGov polling
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41 per cent say BBC ‘balanced’
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The Conservatives have again been accusing the BBC of being biased against them. Does the public agree, asks YouGov’s Stephan Shakespeare? Exclusively for Red Box, I used YouGov First Verdict over the weekend to find out.
Is the BBC biased?
- "Yes, to the right," say 18 per cent
- "Yes, to the left," say 28 per cent
- "No, it's quite balanced," say 41 per cent
- 11 per cent just don't know
So overall, that's just a tad to the left.
I followed up with: Should the BBC continue to be paid for as now, through the licence fee, or should it be made to pay for itself (e.g. through taking advertising)?
- 51 per cent thought it should "continue as now"
- 43 per cent preferred "it should pay for itself by other means"
- 6 per cent didn't express an opinion
702 people took part.
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YouGov
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In the Commons
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- Oral questions – work and pensions
- Legislation – infrastructure bill
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In the Lords
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- Oral questions – prisoners at work
- Legislation – consumer rights bill
- Legislation – modern slavery bill
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Elsewhere
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- 9am: Boris Johnson takes part in monthly LBC phone-in
- 4pm: 2014 Downing St Christmas tree presented outside No. 10
- 6.30pm: Ed Miliband takes part in Leaders Live Q&A
- 7pm: Harriet Harman takes part in LBC phone-in
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