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Red Box

Friday, December 5

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Good morning and welcome to your daily political briefing from me, Philip Webster.

In today's edition

  • Tories and the BBC - is it war?
  • Voters believe deep cuts damaging - exclusive
  • MPs try to scupper aid bill
  • Divisions grow over new grammars

Any tips or feedback tweet us @TimesRedBox.

Top News
Autumn statement
Osborne and the BBC - is it war?

An exclusive YouGov poll for Red Box (details below) may explain George Osborne’s surprising sensitivity about the BBC’s reporting of spending cuts.

Carried out last night, the poll finds that the public believes the forecasts that the scale of cuts will be colossal, says that they are a bad thing and thinks that they will have a negative impact on Tory election chances.

The row between ministers and the BBC has now been upgraded to a war, according to the Telegraph and Mail.

Of all people, the chancellor should have known that attacking the BBC for hyperbole was a certain way of keeping the spending cuts side of the statement in the public mind. The corporation felt obliged to lead its bulletins and running coverage with it yesterday, and the papers do their bit today.

And all that from the most adept of the government’s media performers. Our survey is therefore instructive.

So the Guardian says that Osborne was drawn into a confrontation with Britain’s leading tax and spending experts after the IFS said he had a duty to spell out his deficit reduction plans. Within hours of his rebuke to the BBC, the IFS confirmed that the scale of cuts envisaged would reduce the state’s role to a point where it would have “changed beyond recognition”, the paper says. It calls Osborne “rattled”.

The Telegraph, though, leads with Conservatives accusing the BBC of “bias” and “systematic exaggeration”.

And the Mail says that open warfare has broken out between ministers and the BBC, adding that that Tory MPs attacked Today’s “disgusting and offensive” reporting.

The Independent chooses a different line, saying that the public will have to go on a £360 billion borrowing spree to make the deficit reduction plans add up.

And The Times reports that Osborne must slash nearly twice as much from the welfare budget if he wants to ensure that cuts to police, councils and roads do not need to accelerate through the next parliament.

It cites the IFS finding that the chancellor would need to find welfare cuts of about £21 billion a year by 2020 to avoid digging deeper than he wants into the budgets of Whitehall departments. This is almost double the £12 billion Osborne claimed was needed at the Conservative party conference.

As if all that was not enough The Spectator says Osborne has been “pusillanimous” over spending reform.

Ministers loved the initial coverage of the autumn statement. As so often happens, they will be less keen on the second day’s.

Go to the Red Box website for further coverage and full details of the poll.

Analysis: Why Ed Miliband’s new message could cause trouble for the prime minister
Morten Morland
Exclusive YouGov polling for Red Box
Poll
How will reports of 'colossal' cuts affect the Tories' election chances?
Autumn statement
Voters dislike deep cuts and say they are damaging for Tories

As Tim Montgomerie pointed out on Red Box yesterday, George Osborne has been reticent about spelling out the spending cuts that are implied by his plans for the next five years, writes YouGov’s Stephan Shakespeare. But the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) did the job for him. What does the public think about that?

Exclusively for Red Box, we used YouGov's First Verdict polling platform to find out. "According to the IFS", we said, "the plans set out by George Osborne will require government spending cuts in the years ahead ‘on a colossal scale’ - more than we have had already. Do you believe that this assessment is true?" Nearly seven in ten (69 per cent) answered “yes, broadly”, versus 17 per cent who said “no” and 14% with no opinion.

Then we asked: "If the assessment were to be true, would Osborne's plans overall be a good thing for the country or a bad thing?" Voters said “good thing” 30 per cent, “bad thing” 51 per cent, “neither” 9 per cent and another 10 per cent had no opinion.

Finally, we asked them to predict: "Do you think this story will turn out to have a positive effect or a negative effect on the Conservatives' chances of winning the next election, or will it make no difference?" By 50 per cent to 20 per cent, people thought it would be negative. 23 per cent thought it would make no difference, and 7 per cent had no opinion. The survey was conducted last night and 1,737 took part. The First Verdict methodology is here

YouGov
Comment
Deeper cuts still needed
Oliver Kamm

George Osborne took issue yesterday with “totally hyperbolic” commentary about his planned spending cuts. The independent Institute for Fiscal Studies said that future cuts would have to be colossal to meet Mr Osborne’s deficit targets. The Lib Dems and Labour leapt on this, declaring the chancellor’s plans unrealisable.

There is little mystery about why Britain’s growth performance has been much stronger than that of the eurozone in the past couple of years. Policy has been looser. And there have been huge cuts in spending in the indebted eurozone economies. They will come through the crisis stronger. Britain has a lot of fiscal retrenchment to do yet– under a government of any complexion.

For more comment and analysis on the autumn statement and its fallout visit the Red Box website

Tory Turmoil
Tory MPs try to scupper aid bill

Whether MPs will take a strong view on today’s Times world exclusive that part of the Elgin Marbles have gone to Russia is not clear.

But it will be a busier than usual Friday in the Commons as MPs debate a backbench bill to enshrine the commitment to spend 0.7 per cent of national income on international aid.

The Guardian reports that a group of Conservative right-wingers are plotting to torpedo the measure by filibustering with a series of wrecking amendments.

The bill is backed by ministers, but allowing it to be dealt with as a backbench bill has put it in peril.

Today’s FT splash will fuel Tory anger. It reports that Britain will have to spend almost £1bn more than forecast to be sure of meeting foreign aid commitments this year and next, according to figures buried in this week’s OBR forecasts. The estimate of the UK’s gross national income is higher than thought, so ministers will have to spend more to hit the target.

The paper reports David Cameron telling a London conference yesterday: “We will continue to meet the promises we made to the poorest people in the world.”

Listen to the latest episode of the Comment Central podcast with Tim Montgomerie
Comment

"I had a choice: did I listen to Ed Balls in the House of Commons or did I actually go and talk to normal people?"

- Nick Clegg explains why he skipped the autumn statement

Tory Turmoil
Conservative rift over grammar schools

A Tory party conflict is growing over MPs’ calls for the introduction more grammar schools.

Greg Hurst reports in The Times that supporters of Michael Gove’s education reforms are worried.

One policy expert has accused grassroots Conservatives of threatening the prospects of poor children and “harking back to myths from the 1950s”.

Jonathan Simons, head of education at the Policy Exchange think-tank, says a wealth of evidence shows that grammar schools benefit middle-class children and that their expansion would damage other schools. All the remaining 164 grammar schools had become “magnets for the affluent”, he says in an online article for The Times.

But the Mail reports that 60 Tory MPs are backing the campaign for more grammars.

The former defence secretary Liam Fox, the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady, and David Davis are among those calling for an end to the ban on new selective state schools, it says. The grassroots Tory group Conservative Voice is reported by the Mail to be building support among MPs for a change in policy which it says would be a vote-winner among millions of middle-class parents.

Donate now to the 2014 Times Christmas Appeal
SW1
Cameron jibes at bunga-bunga Berlusconi

David Cameron joked with his wife about Silvio Berlusconi’s proclivity for spa baths and whores in front of a Downing Street visitor, writes Alice Ross. The artist Ben Eine had been invited for tea after one of his paintings was chosen as a gift for Barack Obama in 2010. As the PM was whisked away to travel for dinner with Berlusconi, who was then Italian prime minister, he apparently told Samantha: “Don’t worry, I’ll get so-and-so to pull me out of the Jacuzzi before the whores turn up.”

Eine said during a video interview that he was startled by the comment: “Prime ministers aren’t meant to say that in front of bods like me, just in case I do this and repeat the story in front of a video camera.”

This isn’t the only time Cameron has had a little undiplomatic fun at the expense of his bunga bunga-loving former counterpart: in 2011, at the height of Berlusconi’s sex scandals, he told workers at a car factory: "I've learnt if the Queen asks you to a party, you say yes. And if the Italian prime minister asks you to a party, it's probably safe to say no."

Briefs

Jeremy Thorpe dies at 85

The former Liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe, whose career was destroyed after he was accused of conspiracy to murder in 1976, died yesterday at 85 after a long battle against Parkinson’s disease.


Abuse survivors threaten to abandon May's inquiry

Theresa May’s inquiry into historical child sexual abuse allegations has hit further problems, as 23 survivors claim in a letter that the inquiry is “not fit for purpose” and they may “walk away” if she refuses to give it statutory status.


Foreign criminals target missed

An official watchdog report has revealed that the Home Office’s target of removing a total of 147 foreign criminals under two separate measures has resulted in just four being deported.


Blair attacks career politicians

In what could be seen as a dig at Ed Miliband, Tony Blair has written a piece in The New York Times criticising politicians who have never had a real job and said MPs' wages are too low to attract talent.

Top News

Commentary on the autumn statement


1. Osborne can’t get away with this blatant spin
- Philip Collins, The Times

2. Osborne is a debt addict - and so is the entire Western World
- Fraser Nelson, The Telegraph

3. Who does George Osborne think he’s trying to kid?
- Nigel Farage, The Independent

4. Even if Osborne’s outlook is deluded, he did not dream it up
- Stephanie Flanders, Financial Times

5. Look at the polls: Britain is a Labour nation, not a Tory one
- Martin Kettle, The Guardian
Red Box
Times+ members are invited to join us on December 8th for our second Red Box debate

“How can Labour win the 2015 general election?”


Featuring Phil Collins, Jenni Russell, John McTernan and Tim Montgomerie

Become a member to book tickets

Already a member? Book here

Agenda
In the Commons
  • International Development (Official Development Assistance Target) Bill
  • Convicted Prisoners Voting Bill
  • House of Lords (Maximum Membership) Bill
  • Wild Animals in Circuses Bill

In the Lords
  • Debate – Role of non-military options in conflict prevention

Elsewhere
  • 9am: Phone Farage on LBC
  • Brussels: Second day of EU Justice and Home Affairs Council
  • Essex, 8pm: Rachel Reeves and Eric Pickles take part in Any Questions
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