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Red Box

Wednesday, January 14

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Good morning and welcome to your daily political briefing from me, Philip Webster.

In today's edition

  • Miliband, Clegg and Farage join forces on TV debates
  • Farage speaks of British 'ghettos'
  • Osborne reassures over sharp inflation dip
  • Voters prefer spending on services to cutting debt – poll
  • Councils rehire staff in £5bn spree
  • Gove told off by PM over noisy phone

Any tips or feedback tweet us @TimesRedBox.

Top News
2015 general election
Miliband, Clegg and Farage threaten to “empty-podium” Cameron

Now they are all ganging up on David Cameron over the TV debates which his strategists have told him should not go ahead.

Today, in a co-ordinated 6am strike, Ed Miliband, Nigel Farage and Nick Clegg each sent him identical letters telling him it would be unacceptable for him to block the clashes and making plain they are ready to go ahead without him - with an “empty podium” provided for him in case he changed his mind.

Red Box has published polls this week showing that voters want the debates and believe that Cameron himself does not – but the electorate still expects them to happen. In other words, they do not accept that his opposition to the current format over the exclusion of the Greens is a genuine excuse.

Today’s move is designed to embarrass the PM and increase the pressure on him. Expect more of this during prime minister’s questions later. It is understood that the manoeuvre was organised by the three parties’ debate preparation teams which have been at work for some time.

The leaders tell Cameron – Miliband’s begins “Dear David” – that the encounters during the 2010 election campaign “were watched by more than 20 million people and enthusiastically endorsed by all those who took part, including yourself”.

“In recent days, you have announced that you are unwilling to take part in debates as proposed by the main broadcasters for the 2015 general election,” the missives added. “I believe it would be a major setback to our democratic processes if these debates were not repeated in 2015 because of one politician's unwillingness to participate.

“I hope you will agree that the decision as to who should take part in the televised debates should not be in the hands of any party leader, each of whom inevitably has their own political interests to defend.”

They add: “It would be unacceptable if the political self-interest of one party leader were to deny the public the opportunity to see their leaders debate in public.”

The leaders do not expect Cameron suddenly to change his stance.

This morning No 10 told Red Box: “We’ve made our position clear – we simply don’t think it’s fair to exclude the Greens.” And it insisted that the PM’s position on a five-way debate to include the Greens had been consistent for a year.

If that remains the position the broadcasters have been left with an almost impossibly difficult decision. My take on today’s move can be found over on the Red Box website. I question whether the broadcasters could really, during the heat of an election campaign, take the emotive decision of going ahead without the prime minister.

Analysis by Callum Jones: Overwhelmingly, voters believe TV debates will happen – but the Tories have other ideas
Tweet

Over to you Dave. #leadersDebate

Kay Burley
@KayBurley View Tweet
Rise of Ukip
Farage speaks of immigrants forming ‘ghettos’ in UK

Ukip has taken a back seat for a few weeks as the main parties have fought themselves to a standstill on the deficit and the health service.

It has been boosted by the news that Ofcom has ruled it is a “major” party, meaning that it is guaranteed daily, almost hourly, coverage when the campaign proper gets under way on March 30. Nigel Farage and hitherto unfamiliar Ukip faces will appear on our screens alongside their rivals.

But no one really doubted Ukip’s or Farage’s ability to grab the news agenda without help from Ofcom.

This morning an interview with Fox News in which he said that immigrants have formed “big ghettos” in Britain while no-go zones for non-Muslims have developed across Europe is everywhere.

The Ukip leader said that “most big cities” in France contained neighbourhoods that were hostile to non-Muslims.

  • The Times says his comments will lead to further accusations that he is attempting to gain political capital out of the Charlie Hebdo shootings in Paris last week.

Farage said that immigrant ghettos had developed in Britain where the authorities had turned “a blind eye” to sexual grooming by Muslim men, female genital mutilation and the enforcement of Sharia, or Islamic law.

  • The Mail quotes Eric Pickles, the communities secretary, as accusing Farage of ‘pandering to peoples worst fears’ and branding his comments “irresponsible and wrong”.

  • The Telegraph leads on Farage’s claim that most big French cities have areas which have become "no-go zones" which non-Muslims and even police cannot enter, and his accusation that Britain and European countries have suffered from "moral cowardice" in allowing "big ghettos" to develop.

Exclusive YouGov poll for Red Box: By more than 5 to 1, voters believe election TV debates will happen
2015 Election Countdown
113 days to go
Follow the comings and goings of SW1 throughout the week on the Red Box website
Poll
Which of the following directions would you like the next government to take Britain in?
Exclusive YouGov polling
Voters prefer spending on services to cutting borrowing

YouGov’s Stephan Shakespeare writes:

We now have a clear definition of the ballot-box question – the choice the voters feel they are making when their little pencil hovers over the paper: do we want deeper cuts to reduce the deficit, or do we prefer to spend more on public services? In exclusive YouGov polling for Red Box, we put it to the voters: "If you had to choose, which of the following directions would you like the next government to take Britain in?" and we gave them three choices.

  • 24 per cent opted for “doing more to reduce the amount the government borrows and the debt it builds up, even if it means public services do less or have to do things with less money"

  • 32 per cent preferred "Giving public services more money and more investment to try and improve services, even if it means the government has to borrow more and builds up more debt"

  • 29 per cent want to leave borrowing and spending as now

With another sample, the question substituted lower taxes for reducing the deficit. This actually increased the preference for more spending, with only 14 per cent going for "trying to keep down or reduce the amount of tax that people pay, even if it means public services do less or have to do things with less money", while 42 per cent preferred "giving public services more money and more investment to try and improve services, even if it means many people have to pay more in ta​x" (and 32 per cent who wanted things to stay as now).

If Labour can persuade people that they will protect public services from the deepest cuts while still showing a modicum of concern about debt, they are in with a strong fighting chance of edging the Tories.

YouGov
Sketch by Matt Lyons: NHS political football in the Commons
UK economy
Don’t fear fall in inflation, says Osborne

George Osborne will tell consumers today that the sharp fall in inflation to 0.5 per cent should be welcomed and not feared.

He will say that Britain could experience “negative inflation” without any big risk to the economy.

Coalition politicians regard the fall as good news, hoping it will provide a boost to households in the run-up to the election.

But they recognise the danger of going the same way as the eurozone where there are deflation fears after inflation fell to minus 0.2 per cent.

Osborne will tell the Royal Economic Society: "In the UK our system is well equipped to deal with negative inflation shocks, just as it dealt with the surge in commodity prices in 2010 and 2011.

"A few months of very low or even negative inflation, driven mainly by external factors, does not in and of itself mean that we run the risk of deflation.”

In the Commons today Labour will force a vote on its proposal that the energy regulator be given power to force companies to cut prices.

But The Sun reports that Labour will U-turn on its original price freeze pledge as bills fall.

It says the policy could be "rebranded" so that charges would instead be capped at a certain level to stop them rising again. A freeze could leave household bills higher than they would otherwise be.

The Sun quotes a Labour source: "Obviously, if bills are coming down there will have to be a bit of rebranding to make it a price cap instead."

Let us know your views on Facebook
Local government
Exclusive: ex-staff rehired by councils in £5bn spree

An investigation by The Times has found that local councils are rehiring staff they have recently made redundant in a £5 billion spending spree on agency and consultancy workers.

The study by Jill Sherman and the paper’s data team discovered that dozens of authorities have splashed out more than £50 million with five spending above £100 million since 2010-11.

Much of the money has been used on agency social workers but an increasing amount is now going on interim managers and consultants, who can earn up to £1,000 a day, it says.

Many of these workers are returning to the councils they originally left after receiving big redundancy packages in a “lucrative” revolving door.

Jonathan Isaby, the chief executive of the Taxpayers Alliance, described the £5bn figure as scandalous.

Exclusive YouGov polling for Red Box
Peter Brookes
SW1
Gove gets flea in his ear

Michael Gove received a “public bollocking” from the prime minister during cabinet yesterday, one present has suggested. The chief whip’s mobile – which ministers are supposed to hand in before the meetings – started to ring, Sam Coates reports in The Times this morning.

As the chancellor was briefing the cabinet on the drop in inflation, his phone started to ring. While one observer told Sam the tone was like “Jazz FM-style comedown music after a heavy night out”, another described it as a “female ballad”. Gove will not reveal the tune because it is “an in joke”.

The PM is reported to have reminded Gove that, for security reasons, mobile phones are banned from the cabinet room. Lesson learnt?

Top News

Wednesday comment


1. Cameron is right to chicken out of debates
- Daniel Finkelstein, The Times

2. Thunderer: Ed has turned the “weaponised” NHS on himself
- Isabel Hardman, The Times

3. The Tories are still toxic on the NHS
- Lord Ashcroft, The Guardian

4. Labour should stop flinching at every Tory attack and sell its vision to voters
- Rafael Behr, The Guardian

5. This is a critical moment for the destinies of Britain and Europe
- Mary Riddell, The Daily Telegraph
Comment from Philip Webster: Clegg, Farage and Miliband have left the broadcasters with an agonising decision
What The Papers Said

The Times
  • Ann Treneman has this account of Tony Blair’s appearance before the Northern Ireland affairs committee yesterday.

  • The chancellor "can afford some satisfaction against his critics", The Times suggests. “At last, consumers can anticipate being better off.”

  • Geoffrey Golding – a tailor who has served the Duke of York for 20 years – is also an outfitter to the PM, Lucy Fisher reports.


The Guardian
  • MPs “have every right” – and “the responsibility” – to call for the Chilcot report to be published, the paper says, adding that David Davis’s proposed Commons debate on the matter “should take place”.

The Daily Telegraph
  • Britain “cannot forever escape the economic carnage on its own doorstep”, the Telegraph warns.

Daily Mail
  • Ed Miliband will lose the election if he is put up against David Cameron in a presidential-style contest, Lord Prescott has warned.

  • In a scolding leader on Miliband’s stance on energy companies, the Mail says: “This quasi-Marxist economic incompetent has already cost families at least £100 a year.”

Agenda
In the Commons
  • 11.30am: Oral questions – Scotland
  • 12pm: PMQs
  • Ten minute rule motion – voting (Civic Obligation), Mr David Winnick
  • Opposition debates – energy prices, steel industry

In the Lords
  • Oral questions – citizenship education
  • Oral questions – internships
  • Short debate – media plurality

Elsewhere
  • 9.30am: Health committee hears from NHS medical director Sir Bruce Keogh
  • 2.45pm: Treasury committee hears from Bank of England governor Mark Carney
  • 3.30pm: Lords justice, institutions and consumer protection committee hears from home secretary and justice secretary
  • 4pm: Education secretary speaks at Young Women's Trust event
  • 5.30pm: Chancellor delivers Royal Economic Society policy lecture
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