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Good morning and welcome to your daily political briefing.
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In today's edition
- 'No!' Merkel tells Cameron
- Darling quits as Murphy gambles
- May to consult victims on abuse inquiry chief
- MP expense records 'shredded'
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European reform
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Merkel prepared to see Britain leave EU
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Is it really auf wiedersehen?
Angela Merkel has let it be known that she would be prepared to see Britain leave the EU rather than accept David Cameron’s attempt to restrict the number of immigrants who can live and work here.
She believes he is taking Britain to a “point of no return”, according to what looks like the heaviest possible briefing to Der Spiegel.
The paper says
it is the first time Mrs Merkel has acknowledged that the UK's exit from the EU is possible.
She is believed to have warned Cameron privately at the recent Brussels summit that she would not go along with him and, as my Red Box colleague Tim Shipman revealed yesterday, the PM is now trying to come up with something falling short of his original hopes that would get past the German chancellor.
One idea is to pledge that a Conservative government would ban EU migrants from the UK unless they have a job. Another is deporting people if they are unable to support themselves.
One minister said that Cameron is now trying to “stretch the existing rules to their limits” instead of overhauling free movement principles.
In The Times Sam Coates discloses that No 10 is examining a further benefit clampdown after Merkel’s “no, no, no”.
Cameron has agreed to delay the long-awaited announcement on immigration reform until after the Rochester & Strood by-election on November 20, abandoning hope that the reforms he promised would help to save the seat from Ukip.
Downing Street is now being urged to embrace plans to block all benefits for EU migrants, including tax credits, until they have been paying tax in Britain for two or three years.
Until now, Cameron’s proposed immigration clampdown has focused on curbs to child benefit, housing allowance and out-of-work benefits. No 10 said this morning he would do what was right for Britain.
The Merkel intervention is gold dust for Ukip. Nigel Farage took to Twitter: “German paper Der Spiegel reports Berlin wants UK EU exit if we try and limit immigration. Still think you can renegotiate, Mr Cameron?”
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Cameron cannot win on immigration
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Tim Montgomerie
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The answers to two key questions favour the Conservatives in their attempt at re-election: “We’re making real progress, are you ready to trust Labour with the economy again?” and “Which party leader is best equipped to be prime minister?”
In recent weeks, however, a panicked Tory operation went badly off message. Just as it would be mad for the Conservatives to elevate the NHS – the issue that most motivates people to support Labour - it was also stupid to elevate immigration – the big issue driving Ukip. As Angela Merkel’s interview with Der Spiegel confirms, David Cameron briefly marched on to a battleground where he cannot win.
He abandoned the two-questions strategy because his operation was so blindsided by the shock defections of Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless that it has begun to see the Tory parliamentary party as a black box, the internal workings of which are a dark mystery. This is not helped by the fact that the new chief whip, Michael Gove, hates his job.
No 10 worried that defeat in the Rochester & Strood by-election might lead to a vote of no confidence in Cameron. It gambled, one might say “recklessly”, that a strong stance on immigration might avoid such a challenge.
Such a challenge was never likely, however. A large minority of Tory MPs long for the day when Cameron is no longer their leader - but they know that a divisive leadership contest this side of the election would be disastrous.
The meltdown of Labour’s position in Scotland is a huge gift to Mr Cameron. As today’s Times leader argues, it is now possible that Miliband will be humiliated as well as beaten next May. It’s time for both Tory MPs and strategists to hold their nerve.
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Morten Morland
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Scottish Labour leadership
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Murphy gambles on tax as Darling quits
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As one big beast goes north, another prepares to leave the scene.
Jim Murphy resigned from the shadow cabinet to concentrate on becoming Labour’s Scottish leader and then - he hopes - first minister.
Alistair Darling announced that he was leaving parliament, a solid career nearing its end.
Murphy gambled by rejecting the devolution of income tax. According to recent polls that is – currently – the wish of the majority of voters.
But Murphy is fighting for the votes of Labour members, not the country generally, at this stage. And there is no doubt that handing full tax powers to Scotland is bad for Labour, which is why it is backed by the Conservatives. Doing so would hugely increase the case for English votes for English laws, which would mean Labour’s Scottish contingent being barred from big economic decisions at Westminster, and it would tie the hands of a future Labour chancellor. Which is why Gordon Brown, a former chancellor, hates the idea.
Darling, who led the successful No campaign, said he wanted to go while he was “still relatively young”.
He is backing Murphy. “Jim has the enthusiasm, the energy, and above all he’s a fighter. For too long we have sat back when we needed to fight,” he told the Financial Times.
Murphy is the bookmakers’ favourite, but he cannot count on the votes of the big unions, for some of whom he is too Blairite. It would be a surprise if he was not ahead in the other two sections of the electoral college, party members and Labour MPs, MSPs and MEPs. But so was Ed Miliband’s brother in the national leadership election. Ed beat David in the end with union votes.
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Which parties would you consider voting for?
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The road to 2015: The data
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Lib Dems more likely to switch to Labour and Conservatives to Ukip
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In yesterday’s bulletin we reported on our poll asking, “who would you vote for?”, writes YouGov’s Stephan Shakespeare. We also asked a broader question: "For each of the following parties, please say if you would ever vote for them?" with four options: “definitely would”, “probably would”, “probably not”, and “definitely not”. The purpose is to understand how much softness, or switchability, we might expect in a campaign.
Of those currently saying they would vote Conservative, 71 per cent are definites; for Labour, it's 69 per cent; for the Lib Dems 61 per cent; and for Ukip it's 70 per cent. If Lib Dems switch, they are more likely to switch to Labour than Conservatives (21 per cent say they “would vote” for them “ever” and 29 per cent say the the same about Labour).
By the same token, current Conservatives are more likely to switch to Ukip (19 per cent are vulnerable to this, compared to 12 per cent to Lib Dems and 8 per cent to Labour). Labour votes are more likely to seep to Lib Dems (14 per cent) than to Ukip (11 per cent) or to the Conservatives (4 per cent).
Finally, if Ukip voters switch, it seems to be more likely to the Conservatives (26 per cent, compared to 12 per cent who could go to Labour and 7 per cents to the Lib Dems). This tells us there is still plenty of room for movement to come, with the advantage probably more on the side of the Lib Dems and the Conservatives.
YouGov polled 1,883 UK adults on October 29 and 30.
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YouGov
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Child abuse inquiry
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May consults victims over child abuse inquiry chief
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Twice bitten, thrice shy. A chastened Theresa May will tell MPs today that she will consult victims’ groups before appointing a new head of the historic child abuse inquiry.
After Fiona Woolf was untidily forced to stand down from the job on Friday - the second chairwoman to go before the inquiry has even started - the home secretary is also likely to give MPs advance approval of the next candidate. How long that will take is anyone’s guess.
She has meanwhile been accused of delaying publication of a report into the Home Office’s failure to act on child abuse claims.
Her department is still considering the findings of Peter Wanless’s report and no date has been set for its release. Yvette Cooper, shadow home secretary, said. “She must publish the Wanless review, which she has had for several weeks, and provide some answers.”
Wanless has told the Guardian he wants the report published as soon as possible.
The work of the inquiry may start without a chairman. So far Baroness Kennedy of The Shaws, Lady Justice Hallett and Lord Carlile of Berriew have declined.
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SW1
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MP expenses records ‘shredded’
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John Bercow is to face questions over what has happened to the records of MPs’ expenses claims made before 2010.
The Telegraph reports that MPs accused of abusing the unreformed expenses system will escape official investigation after House of Commons authorities destroyed all record of their claims.
The Speaker will be asked why tens of thousands of pieces of paperwork relating to claims made before 2010 were shredded.
Members of the public who have written to Kathryn Hudson, the standards watchdog, to raise concerns about their MP’s claims have been told there can be no investigation because there is a lack of evidence.
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The Sun
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Angela Merkel is talking tough over Britain and the EU but the Sun’s leader column reckons she is bluffing: “We don’t see Merkel wanting to be left alone to prop up Europe’s failed economies”.
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The Telegraph
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Millions of taxpayers are to l receive a breakdown of how their tax is spent by government, the Telegraph reports on its front page, while a leader praises the “far-reaching reform” that should lead to “greater resistance to ever-increasing levels of public spending”.
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The Times
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Time is running out for Ed Miliband to avoid “disaster”, warns the Times in a leader: Labour urgently needs to earn “broader support” than its traditional core and must reach out to business.
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The Independent
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The shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt, gives an interview in which he calls on Labour to “shed its leftist qualms” about supporting the traditional family unit. The paper also praises David Laws’s recent criticisms of political involvement in setting curriculums.
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