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Red Box

Tuesday, September 2

Good morning and welcome to our daily political briefing brought to you on weekdays by Philip Webster and on Sundays by Tim Shipman.

In today's edition

  • Salmond surge puts Scotland on a knife edge
  • Disarray over terror laws
  • Most fear terror attacks on UK - poll
  • Labour suspends Rotherham councillors
  • 'Boris Island' airport rejected

Latest: Nick Clegg, interviewed on Today, spoke of "legal difficulties" over stopping terror suspects returning to the UK.

Essential political news and exclusive daily polling from YouGov direct to your inbox, with expert analysis from our leading columnists David Aaronovitch, Adam Boulton, Camilla Cavendish, Phil Collins, Danny Finkelstein, Tim Montgomerie, Matthew Parris, Hugo Rifkind, Jenni Russell, Rachel Sylvester and more.

Any tips or feedback tweet us @TimesRedBox

Top News
Scottish referendum
Surge for Salmond puts Scotland on a knife edge

The momentum is with the nationalists and the Better Together campaign has 16 days to save the Union.

Today’s YouGov poll putting support for independence at 47 per cent will send shockwaves through Scotland and the rest of the UK.

Suddenly Alex Salmond is on the verge of achieving his dream and his opponents will have to work all-out to stop him getting over the line on September 18.

The poll shows the lead of the No campaign has shrunk to six points and a sharp rise in support for independence among Labour and Liberal Democrat voters. Better Together had better start all over again and this time show just as much passion for its cause as Salmond has succeeded in inspiring across Scotland.

Salmond may still well lose as Scots face the enormity of their choice over coming days. But the race now seems so close that the issue will not go away. We could have another vote within a few years.

If they win we know the nationalists want to reach final agreement on separation by March 2016, in time for the Scottish parliament elections in May that year.

I think it is close enough now for us to insist on answers to questions about a “yes” result that the politicians have refused to answer.

Here are some of them:

  • Would Scottish MPs have any say in UK decisions in the months before the 2015 general election?

  • Would there be any point in MPs standing for election in Scotland in 2015 knowing they would be illegitimate within months?

  • Would the remainder of Britain have to hold a second general election in 2016 to take account of Scotland’s departure?

  • Would David Cameron, having lost the Union, feel obliged to resign?

  • Would Ed Miliband, if he had won narrowly in 2015 with Scottish help, feel obliged to call an election?

All in all we would be heading for possibly the biggest constitutional crisis in the nation’s history.

Given the predominance of Labour seats in Scotland the Conservatives would find it easier to win outright majorities. Without Scotland David Cameron would have had his own majority last time. But in most of their victories since 1945 Labour would still have won without Scotland, albeit by smaller majorities.

Answers please.

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Comment
Unionists need to brush up their messaging
Lindsay McIntosh

Two radically different pictures of Scotland have been painted ahead of the independence referendum and, in 16 days’ time, one is going to be exposed as a fake.

The first is seen by many in the political bubble. In it, the Nationalists are losing the practical arguments about the economy, so are on course to lose the vote badly.

The other, seen by some outside, shows “yes” quietly stealing victory. In it, conversations are turning from what the currency would be in an independent Scotland to what Alex Salmond claims would happen to the NHS within the Union.

Our poll shows the latter image is increasingly captivating voters. It shows Unionists need to brush up on their messaging if they are not to be responsible for a dramatic redrawing of the UK after September 18.

Lindsay McIntosh is Scottish Political Editor

Morten Morland
Iraq and Syria crisis
Terror curbs in chaos as PM hints at joining airstrikes

The Lib Dems and the government’s own lawyers have holed some of David Cameron’s anti-extremist plans before they have even reached parliament.

There are serious doubts over whether two of the five measures announced yesterday will ever see the light of day.

The PM announced apparent agreement on a plan to relocate terror suspects away from their home area, and was praised by Ed Miliband for doing so.

But soon after his Commons statement the Lib Dems were suggesting that they had not signed up to the principle. I’m told they will go along with the idea of excluding suspects from specific places where trouble is known to brew, but not with full banishment to other parts of the country.

Similarly there are big questions over the plan, well-briefed over the weekend, to bar suspects from returning to the UK. Lawyers have voiced concerns that stripping them even temporarily of their passports would be against international law.

Several papers pick up on the PM’s remark that he would “act immediately” and join US airstrikes in Syria and Iraq if he felt national security was threatened. This appeared to be a change of tone in advance of the Nato summit this week.

Rachel Sylvester levels a serious charge in The Times, suggesting it is hard to avoid the suspicion that No 10 ramped up the rhetoric last Friday at the PM’s press conference to try to bury bad news after the defection of Douglas Carswell to Ukip.

This morning further doubts have arisen. David Anderson, QC, the independent terror legislation reviewer, told the Today programme that there were “significant difficulties” over barring suspects from returning to the UK and “practical problems” with another proposal to allow police to seize passports of suspects going abroad.

Poll
In the last five years, do you think the threat of terrorism in Britain has increased?
Iraq and Syria crisis
Exclusive: Most think terror attacks on UK are likely

The British people believe that the threat of terrorism has increased over the past five years (Stephan Shakespeare writes). According to an exclusive YouGov poll for Red Box, 45 per cent feel more endangered than before, against 13 per cent saying the threat has decreased. 38 per cent say that it has stayed about the same.

That sense of threat is even more sharply perceived towards British citizens abroad, with 67 per cent believing it has increased. Just 5 per cent oppose this view. People are nearly evenly split about whether the coalition government has been effective in dealing with it.

While 74 per cent think it likely there will be further terrorist attacks on British citizens (against just 15 per cent who think it unlikely), people are fairly realistic about the danger to themselves, with only 8 per cent believing there is a “good chance” of their circle of friends and family being personally at risk.

YouGov
Comment
Mr Parris replies to Mr Montgomerie
Matthew Parris

I was pleased to be singled out by my friend and colleague, Tim Montgomerie, in yesterday's throwaway “I'm looking at you, Matthew Parris”. In the course of these remarks, Tim also wrote this: "Political leadership ... becomes impossible if a leader is not willing to give large majorities of his or her party's natural supporters what they want.”

From a less well-intentioned speaker than Tim I would regard that as a disgraceful piece of advice. I'm happy for this to encapsulate the difference between us.

Rotherham abuse report
Labour suspends four councillors

With Shaun Wright, the South Yorkshire police and crime commissioner, still embarrassing Labour by refusing to quit over the Rotherham abuse scandal, the party is acting to limit the damage.

It is understood to have suspended four more members of the local council overnight.

The police force will face criticism today on another high-profile issue. This afternoon David Crompton, South Yorkshire’s chief constable, will be grilled by the home affairs select committee alongside Tony Hall, the BBC chief, over coverage of the recent raid on the home of Sir Cliff Richard.

The Number
£100 billion
The estimated cost of the “Boris Island” estuary airport
Airport expansion
Has Boris Island just sunk?

The proposal to build four runways on the Thames estuary – dubbed “Boris Island” due to the mayor of London’s staunch support – has been rejected by the Airports Commission with Sir Howard Davies, the chairman, favouring either an expansion of Gatwick or Heathrow (Callum Jones writes).

The mayor angrily warned this morning that Sir Howard’s report now risks “gathering dust on a shelf in Whitehall”, adding: “In one myopic stroke the Airports Commission has set the debate back by half a century.” Boris plans to carry on campaigning regardless. It might be worth catching his monthly phone-in on LBC from 9am.

Sir Howard made his case against the estuary idea on Today a short time ago, declaring: “There is a strong chance you would never get it built.”

Meanwhile the Uxbridge and South Ruislip Conservative association will unveil its shortlist of election candidates. It has emerged that Johnson is set to fight the two-times Olympic gold medallist James Cracknell to represent the Tories in the seat.

Briefs

Bercow delays clerk appointment

The Speaker, John Bercow, was forced to open the parliamentary session by announcing a “modest pause” in the hiring process for the clerk of the House, after widespread criticism of his choice, Australian Carol Mills.


“Plebgate” investigation publishes footage

A Scotland Yard inquiry into “Plebgate” has released a report including new CCTV footage appearing to show passers-by pausing to watch the altercation between a police officer and Andrew Mitchell, then the chief whip. The report included a text from a police officer boasting that she could “topple” the government.

Comment

In the generally successful history of the British Army, some of the most celebrated actions from Corunna to Gallipoli to Dunkirk have involved evacuations from hopeless positions. May I congratulate you on successful disengagement from the opposition forces you have run across?

- Crispin Blunt MP on Bercow’s announcement

Top News
In the Commons
  • Topical Questions – Treasury
  • Education committee holds session on ‘Trojan horse’ plot. Birmingham council CEO and independent adviser Ian Kershaw give evidence

Elsewhere
  • City of London magistrates’ court: Peter Nunn appears charged with alleged Twitter abuse of Stella Creasy MP
  • Edinburgh: Leading Scottish political figures take part in another independence debate for STV
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